What awaits the real estate market in 2023?
Taking these precedents into account, and without forgetting the clear change in money prices, everything suggests that in the year 2023, there will be a clear decline in transactions. According to experts, a figure close to 10-15%.
Quite feasible figures if we take into account that the forecast for closing the sale of homes in the year 2022 is above 600,000 homes sold. This estimated decrease still leaves us close to 550,000 homes sold in 2023, values very close to the closings in 2019 (569,993 homes sold according to Fomento data). In summary, a very good level of transactions.
And what will happen to the prices? The latest data presented estimated the average effort of Spaniards to access housing at approximately 31% of their income. Still within “normality”, if mortgage prices continue to increase, as it seems that they will happen even slightly, the effort will also increase. Above all, of the more moderate incomes. That will be where we can see an adjustment in prices.
The big rent problem
But we have another problem, and that is that, although the different administrations seem to be focused on it, if we see the results, it is clear that they do the opposite of what is necessary to solve it. And that problem is the rental market.
If access to the purchase of homes is difficult, it is normal to shift this demand to the rental market. However, with rental prices skyrocketing and housing policies seeming to be driving down supply and driving up prices, the perfect storm is brewing. Difficult access to the purchase market, difficult access to the rental market, what result can I have?
Difficult to foresee, but everything indicates that it will help keep prices stable without major drops in the short term.
future forecasts
If the war in Ukraine continues to drag on, if the Central Government reaches an agreement on rental policy, there is some significant change that really encourages supply and with it, price containment. Or if, on the contrary, as happened in Catalonia, rents are limited, making a large part of the market disappear…
Be that as it may, as is the situation in the financial markets, what is clear is that the real estate market will be a good refuge for our future savings
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